The Stock Market in the Long Period and the GDP

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The rule is the Stock Market in the long run rises. In the last 90 years, he has earned about 10% per year.

This result is impressive when compared to other asset classes. However, this does not mean that in the short term, it cannot have significant collapses.

There have been many financial shocks, the last one in 2007 when the market collapsed for months, and many investors got hurt.

stock market crash financial crisis 2007 2008

The ideal investment in the stock market is the Buy and Hold Strategy. This strategy involves buying a basket of stocks and keeping them in the portfolio without stop loss or risk control.

Traders no longer use this approach. However, it is always used as a benchmark to evaluate the validity of a trading strategy.

Why does the Stock Market go up in the long run?

There is a direct relationship between GDP growth and equity valuations.
The economy does not work in watertight compartments. When the economy is doing well, companies are earning and vice versa.

Also, remember that stock valuations are very much based on analyst expectations. So if the economy is doing well, companies are also expected to make good money.

There are also other indicators to keep an eye on and will be examined in future posts, but GDP is the most important one.


The economy, however, is going through cycles, the same for financial markets.

Logic would like that when there is a deterioration in the real economy, one should also see a subsequent decline in the financial markets.

This does not always happen, and in recent years, it is happening less and less. Why?


Stock Market VS Central Bank and Government

The increasingly invasive intervention of governments and central banks has meant that with the worsening of the economy, all operators expect a central bank intervention.

The central bank intervenes by manipulating interest rates, in this way, it manages to affect the financial markets and also the real economy.

The financial markets will react much more violently to an increase or decrease in interest rates compared to the real economy.


This is because valuations in the financial markets are also based on the expectations of the operators.

The political events can affect the financial markets and create short-term shocks that can turn into long-term trends.

When conditions worsen, there is an exit from the stock markets towards safer and less volatile assets.


However, this trend has diminished in recent years due to the lack of alternatives to equities due to too low-interest rates.



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My name is Luca. I grew up in Italy. I have a degree in law and I’m an independent trader since 2007. 

I’m a systematic trader and sometimes, I trade using options strategies with US ETFs and Stocks.

I have built hundreds of automated trading systems and indicators for TradeStation, MultiCharts and MetaTrader.

I started this blog in 2017 to share what I learned in the financial market.

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